https://new.cupaobaidou.com/tag/%E5%86%B3%E7%AD%96/Recent content in 决策 on 醋泡白豆Hugozh-CNWed, 24 Jan 2024 18:25:02 +0800https://new.cupaobaidou.com/archives/884/Sun, 24 Sep 2023 05:55:00 +0800https://new.cupaobaidou.com/archives/884/<section style="line-height: 2; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px; padding: 0px 10px; box-sizing: border-box; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; text-align: justify; visibility: visible;"><section style="text-align: unset; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><strong style="visibility: visible;">好策虽败赏应在</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">很多时候，一个自己坚持的、好的策略，不一定能得到现实中的反馈和回报，甚至有了很糟糕的结果，在这种情况下，自己要对「自己能够贯彻这项策略」这件事本身进行奖励和肯定。</p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">比如无论多么赶时间，都遵守交通规则，不闯红灯，这次可能因为不闯红灯错过了火车，这时候自己整体的情绪都是负面的，但也要调出其中好的部分——为自己的肉身安全遵守交通规则，对自己进行肯定和奖励。至于迟到误了火车这件事， 需要调整的是其中时间安排的部分。</p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">很长的时间内，我都是靠着外界的反馈，来调整自己做一件事的方法和策略。比如考前突击复习获得了不错的成绩，下次就更倾向于把复习的时间都集中到考试前几天；比如很热情地和新朋友打招呼如果对方没有积极回应，就倾向于和所有的新朋友交流都变 「 I 人」（MBTI）。</p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">这种行动的原则随机性很强，且效率比较低耗时间比较长。</p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">我的运气算比较好，一些比较好的策略在首次执行的时候，都得到了正向的反馈，促进了之后多次的使用。</p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">但也有更多特别好的策略，因为没有在前几次得到正反馈，就放弃了。</p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">「好策虽败赏犹在」的反面，其实就是没有为平行时空中所有的决策负责。</p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">执行一个坏的策略，单次幸运，获得了非对称性的回报。这次偶然闯红灯省时间的侥幸，无数个平行世界中，肯定有一个另一个自己肉身 game over 。在这个世界，如果继续下去，大概率也会有这种后果。</p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">我发现<span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66); visibility: visible;"><strong style="visibility: visible;">将「执行自己认为正确的策略」和「这个策略之后单次得到的结果」分开，只对前一个行为进行评判，会让自己轻松很多，且长期大概率会得到好的结果。</strong></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">现在坚持的几个自认为是「好策」有：</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">高方差的社交风格，默认所有人都 nice ，社交中积极主动</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">Show my work ，坚持写东西，并发到网上，即使单次没什么反馈</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">做了自己认为的正确的事，无论外界反馈如何，都要自己肯定自己。</p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><p><br></p><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;outline: 0px;line-height: 2;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 1px;visibility: visible;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;outline: 0px;line-height: 2;visibility: visible;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;outline: 0px;line-height: 2;visibility: visible;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="outline: 0px;text-align: unset;visibility: visible;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;outline: 0px;line-height: 2;visibility: visible;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="outline: 0px;text-align: unset;"><p style="outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" data-style="outline: 0px; 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