https://new.cupaobaidou.com/tag/%E9%9A%8F%E6%9C%BA/Recent content in 随机 on 醋泡白豆Hugozh-CNFri, 26 Jan 2024 19:45:34 +0800https://new.cupaobaidou.com/archives/521/Mon, 13 Sep 2021 11:11:00 +0800https://new.cupaobaidou.com/archives/521/<section style="line-height: 2; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px; padding: 0px 10px; box-sizing: border-box; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; text-align: justify; visibility: visible;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">关键词：选择和概率</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p></section><section style="text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><section style="width: 6px; height: 6px; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; border-radius: 100%; background-color: rgb(127, 161, 191); box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;" data-style="width: 6px; height: 6px; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; border-radius: 100%; background-color: rgb(127, 161, 191); box-sizing: border-box;" class="js_darkmode__0"><section style="visibility: visible;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="float: left; line-height: 0; width: 0px; vertical-align: top; visibility: visible;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 3em; border-top: 2px solid rgb(127, 161, 191); display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><section style="visibility: visible;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="float: left; line-height: 0; width: 0px; vertical-align: top; visibility: visible;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px; font-size: 23px; box-sizing: border-box; min-width: 1.2em !important; visibility: visible;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">01</p></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><section style="width: 3em; border-top: 2px solid rgb(127, 161, 191); display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><section style="visibility: visible;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="float: left; line-height: 0; width: 0px; vertical-align: top; visibility: visible;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 6px; height: 6px; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; border-radius: 100%; background-color: rgb(127, 161, 191); box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;" data-style="width: 6px; height: 6px; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; border-radius: 100%; background-color: rgb(127, 161, 191); box-sizing: border-box;" class="js_darkmode__1"><section style="visibility: visible;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="float: left; line-height: 0; width: 0px; vertical-align: top; visibility: visible;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">概率的扩大不仅源自认真的分析，还需要信息的大量输入。</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">刚和领导打完几圈麻将，新手的手气几乎都像是要用光在第一次打麻将的晚上，胡了一把接一把，胡得我不知所措。</p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">处在这场四人桌上的麻将之战中的我，是纯粹技术好吗？当然不是，运气是很重要的一部分，刚刚熟悉规则，在第二场的时候，已经在想除了自己不能左右的运气——抓到哪一张牌之外，自己还能控制什么。能控制的只有扩大胡牌的概率。</p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">麻将本质上是在不规则的数据中，半随机组合，比赛谁能够最先把混乱无序的牌做到最熵减的情况——凑成连子、对子等。所以在个人控制范围内，可以选择在打牌的过程中选择留下二万、三万而不是一万、二万，因为前者凑成连子的概率要更大。</p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">当然只是一部分，由于是个新手，笔者在打牌的时候只能把有限的注意到自己的牌上，不过关注桌上其他人可能会胡什么牌。</p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">运气好，再加上稍微扩大一点的概率凑成了现在的局面。</p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">在这场麻将牌局中，眼睛注意更多，脑子计算概率更快，可能会获得更好的结果。</p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p></section><section style="text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><section style="width: 6px; height: 6px; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; border-radius: 100%; background-color: rgb(127, 161, 191); box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;" data-style="width: 6px; height: 6px; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; border-radius: 100%; background-color: rgb(127, 161, 191); box-sizing: border-box;" class="js_darkmode__2"><section style="visibility: visible;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="float: left; line-height: 0; width: 0px; vertical-align: top; visibility: visible;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 3em; border-top: 2px solid rgb(127, 161, 191); display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><section style="visibility: visible;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="float: left; line-height: 0; width: 0px; vertical-align: top; visibility: visible;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px; font-size: 23px; box-sizing: border-box; min-width: 1.2em !important; visibility: visible;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">02</p></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><section style="width: 3em; border-top: 2px solid rgb(127, 161, 191); display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><section style="visibility: visible;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="float: left; line-height: 0; width: 0px; vertical-align: top; visibility: visible;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 6px; height: 6px; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; border-radius: 100%; background-color: rgb(127, 161, 191); box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;" data-style="width: 6px; height: 6px; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; border-radius: 100%; background-color: rgb(127, 161, 191); box-sizing: border-box;" class="js_darkmode__3"><section style="visibility: visible;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="float: left; line-height: 0; width: 0px; vertical-align: top; visibility: visible;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;"></p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; visibility: visible;">但跳出这场局来看，如果笔者在很早的时候有这种概率论的思考方式， 笔者就不会坐在这一张桌子上大麻将。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">除去打麻将的这个游戏活动的娱乐性质，来分析一下这个游戏。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">麻将有固定的规则，一局是多少钱，即使遇到天胡，也不过是在翻倍的基础上再翻几倍， 但是天胡是可遇不可求。在每一局结束之后都要重新洗牌——这不是一个优势可以积累的游戏。在新的游戏中大家重归新的起点，及时前一把手气好到不行，这一把也可能拿到烂牌。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">且在自己的主观能力内，能够扩大的获胜概率也是有限。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">所以笔者不是很能理解打麻将上瘾的人，这是在从事一项获胜概率不断在一条横线上下徘徊的活动。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">好了， 麻将的话题结束。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 6px;height: 6px;display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;border-radius: 100%;background-color: rgb(127, 161, 191);box-sizing: border-box;" data-style="width: 6px; height: 6px; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; border-radius: 100%; background-color: rgb(127, 161, 191); box-sizing: border-box;" class="js_darkmode__4"><section><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 3em;border-top: 2px solid rgb(127, 161, 191);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;font-size: 23px;min-width: 1.2em !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">03</p></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 3em;border-top: 2px solid rgb(127, 161, 191);display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section><section style="width: 6px;height: 6px;display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;border-radius: 100%;background-color: rgb(127, 161, 191);box-sizing: border-box;" data-style="width: 6px; height: 6px; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; border-radius: 100%; background-color: rgb(127, 161, 191); box-sizing: border-box;" class="js_darkmode__5"><section><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="float:left;line-height:0;width:0;vertical-align:top;"></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">文章的标题，随机漫步的我，是更改自塔勒布的成名三部曲之一《随机漫步的傻瓜》。生活中的人们误以为自己在股票市场上的做的判断要至少比一半的人好，但实际大多数的人都是亏钱的。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">因为交易和麻将基本一样，都是不能累计概率优势的活动。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">一年之前笔者会钦佩梭哈致富的幸运大神，但是现在笔者最钦佩的人是能够在动态世界中发现概率大的套利者。何为套利？就是利用信息不对称创造收益。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">外国网站上有一条有价值的消息——厄尔尼诺今年很严重（意味着周边的农产品会受到影响），你看不懂，但是懂英文的小明看懂了，于是小明做多了某系产品，于是他就赚钱了，这就是利用语言优势，实现套利。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">利用韩国的泡菜溢价，搬砖大饼实现收益也是如此。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">和麻将活动不同的是，发现和利用套利机会的能力是会不断增强的——你学会了英文，那么这个状态就是不可逆的，你永远无法回到自己不动英文的状态，于是你的信心渠道再次扩充。</p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="white-space: normal;margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">所以选择优势能够逐渐累积的活动。</p></section></section>